News
Sunday
Mar082020

What's Going on in the Markets - March 8, 2020

On Monday, March 9, the market celebrates its 11th anniversary of this long bull market with the bull appearing quite tired, coughing and wheezing into that milestone. Yes, believe it or not, we are still in a bull market.

Despite the wild swings in the markets last week, the major indexes managed to close positive on the week for a change. Unfortunately, it was a somewhat hollow victory given that the worries over the Coronavirus have not subsided and an oil price war was started on Friday (read more below).

Volatility in the major indexes continued last week following the worst week of this bull market. Every day last week had a move of greater than +/- 2% as bullish and bearish investors fought for control.

The latest economic reports started out on solid footing with the ISM Manufacturing Index unexpectedly remaining in expansion territory. Likewise, the ISM Services Index beat expectations by rising to the best level in over a year. Mortgage rates have hit a new all-time low in a continued benefit to the housing market, with construction spending growth accelerating to the fastest pace in nearly three years. In a show of strength in the economy, the labor market remains resilient. Employers added 273,000 jobs in February, while jobless claims are near the lowest level in 50 years.

Nonetheless, from a market technical standpoint, it continues to indicate an elevated level of risk as evidenced by the recent volatility.  Dismal market breadth (the number of stocks that are up versus those that are down) over the past week suggests that there will likely be a continuation of this period of high volatility. On a positive front, the short-term selling pressure has put the market into oversold territory, indicating that there should be another attempted rally in the days ahead.

The Federal Reserve (the Fed) flew into action last Tuesday, cutting interest rates by 50 basis points (0.50%) in the first emergency cut since the Financial Crisis of 2008. Despite this move from the Fed, the strength in the U.S. economic data at this time does not suggest that this is the start of a recessionary bear market. The markets are expecting a  further rate cut when the Federal Open Market Committee meets on March 17-18.

As I write this on Sunday night, the futures (overnight) markets indicate a rough opening for trading on Monday, as fears of the overall economic impact of the Coronavirus continues to be priced in. In addition, a major oil price war appears to be breaking out as Russia and Saudi Arabia failed to come to an agreement on reductions in oil production, causing a plunge in the price of oil on Sunday. That will no doubt have a negative effect on stock prices this week, especially energy shares.

Regardless, it appears that the market wants to re-test the lows that we saw on February 28th. This is a normal technical progression, and hopefully, the lows will hold this week and we kick off a multi-week, if not multi-month rally.

According to the folks at Sentimentrader.com – who keep track of such statistics – “The last 10 times pessimism towards US equities was this extreme, the S&P 500 rallied 100% of the time over the next two months.” That's a pretty solid statistic.

It is going to be hard, perhaps painfully so, to watch as your portfolio holdings get hit with selling pressure along with the broad stock market. In this environment a little bit of selling pressure can do a lot of harm – especially when there isn’t much buying pressure to balance things out.

But this is a temporary condition. Think back to Christmas Eve, 2018 – the last time the market’s proverbial rubber band was this stretched so far to the downside, stocks snapped back within just a few weeks. And, selling into the downside panic was proven to be a mistake. We were back to record highs in a matter of months. As harrowing as this sell-off has been, by almost any measure except velocity, it remains a pipsqueak through Friday compared with the battering investors took at the end of 2018. In that episode, the S&P 500 plunged almost 20%.

I can’t say for sure the market will snap back now just as it did back then. Nothing is ever guaranteed in the stock market. But it's probably too late to sell right now if you haven't lightened up already. If you're too heavily invested, wait for a market rally to do so. And if your favorite fund or stock has declined enough to make it attractive, you can consider lightly "nibbling" on some here. Of course, if I'm not your advisor, then you should consult with yours, as this is not a recommendation to buy or sell any securities.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so is your financial plan and investment objectives.

Sunday
Mar012020

What's Going on in the Markets for March 1, 2020

As you well know, investors just experienced one of the worst weeks in recorded history in the stock market as fears over COVID-19 (Coronavirus) ramped up, and the number of confirmed cases increased. Over the last week, we saw 3 out of 4 days in which declining stocks outnumbered advancing stocks by more than an 8:1 margin. That has not occurred since 1939!

Is it time to batten down the hatches and prepare for a bear market (a bear market is one that declines at least 20% from the last peak)? I don't think so, at least not until we get more evidence pointing in that direction.

While I'm no medical student, Coronavirus could prove to be a temporary setback. But if it indeed accelerates the economy into a recession due to supply chain disruptions or causes demand for goods and services to fall off for more than 1-2 calendar quarters, then I think that we could fall into a bear market. Therefore, we cannot underestimate the potential effect of a disruption of the economic cycle.

At this point, we can only identify this as a probable market correction (something less than a 20% decline from peak to trough). In other words, we do not have definitive confirmation of a recession ahead, and we cannot yet say whether the final bull market top is in place.

From an economic standpoint, the risk of recession was low prior to the Coronavirus outbreak fears, and while there will undoubtedly be an economic impact from the virus, the signs of an economic contraction (negative gross domestic product or GDP) are still notably absent. In fact, Friday’s Consumer Sentiment report from the University of Michigan shows that optimism reached the second-highest level of this cycle in February. There will need to be a breakdown in confidence before a recession becomes probable.

On the market structure (technical) side, the data obviously deteriorated greatly last week in line with the correction in the market. The selling has been widespread and brutal. That being the case, the market has reached a deeply oversold reading, indicating that a robust rebound rally of some type should develop in the next few days, if not on Monday. The strength and breadth of that rally will be vital in assessing: 1) How much damage has been done to investor confidence, and 2) the probability that this bull market may be over.

If you are finding that your risk tolerance for this kind of market action is lower than you thought, then you should consider reducing your exposure to the stock market on any bounce. Of course, you should first consult with your financial advisor and not consider this investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Obviously, anything can change the landscape, especially a bazooka of money fired at the markets or a reduction in short-term interest rates by the federal reserve and other central bankers around the world. The markets were down much more on Friday before rallying hard in the last 30 minutes, a positive sign that we may be seeing the pace of selling slowing or abating.

Regardless, it is certainly possible that we may have seen the highs for the year (my crystal ball is still in the shop), but I'm open to what the market tells me. I'm not married to a single way of thinking (bullish or bearish) and neither should you. If the market can retrace over 60% of this decline on any sustained rally, then we might have a shot at targeting old highs. But that's a tall order, and it's going to take a while to happen if it does. Much of the technical damage has to be repaired, and a lot of disappointed regretful buyers are going to want their money back on any rally,  greatly increasing the supply of shares for sale in the short term.

Any first step in the right direction starts with arresting the current decline and successfully bounce this market for more than just a few hours or just a day. Based on the Sunday night futures markets, the current outlook looks to be for a positive open on Monday morning, despite the increase in the number of reported Coronavirus cases over the weekend. I suspect that market followers are expecting an announcement of an interest rate cut sometime on Monday.

For our client accounts, we have been reducing equity exposure for several weeks and adding hedges to our portfolios. We will continue to be defensive until we see signs that the market is stabilizing, and that a durable market low has been formed. For your part, don't be a hero: it may be too late to sell and it may be too soon to buy (but it may be OK to nibble a little). Again, I cannot advise you personally unless you become an investment-management client :-).

Over the long term, the market has always moved up, but volatility has always been the cost of enjoying higher returns in the stock market. With risk highly elevated, it may be time to do very little. Just know that this too shall pass, and better times may only be a few days, if not a few weeks away.

For now, just keep washing those hands frequently and stay home if you're sick. I can safely say that without needing a medical degree.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so is your financial plan and investment objectives.

Tuesday
Feb252020

What's Going on in the Markets for February 25, 2020

It wasn't a pretty day for the stock market fans on Monday with one of the worst down days in over two years. Does that mean the market is doomed and that we've finally topped? Read on for some encouraging news on post-smack down days like Monday, with some help from my friend and fellow market writer Jon D. Markman.

Investors seemed to panic on Monday over a climb in corona virus infections outside of the Chinese epicenter and also started to discount the possibility that the Democrats might nominate capitalism antagonist Bernie Sanders.

The Dow Jones Industrials Average started with a gap down and 500-point slide, made a couple of feeble rebound attempts, then closed on its low at -1,031 points with a 3.5% loss. The S&P 500 fell 3.35%, the NASDAQ 100 fell 3.9% and the small-cap Russell 2000 index fell 2.9%. This puts us about 5% below all-time highs as measured by the S&P 500 index, a normal and frequent pull-back level.

It was a bad day for sure, but in no way historic. Slams of 3.5% occur about twice a year on average, with something like 100 instances since 1928. The Monday slide was just the 48th biggest one day drop for SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) since 1993. It was the worst Monday decline since way back on Feb. 5, 2018, when the SPY sank 4.18% for a reason nobody can quite remember.

Sure it’s sad that the corona virus has spread to Italy and other countries, but overseas events ranging from assassinations and full-blown wars to economic hardship and the ebola virus just don’t move the dial for U.S. investors, whose attitude is pretty much, “Sorry not sorry.”

This is a good time to remind you that the only reason markets care about the dreaded virus is that it could put a kink in global supply chains that reduce public companies’ recent guidance on future revenues and margins (i.e., overall corporate profits). So it’s really another recession scare, not a public health scare.

Investors are susceptible to the scare because global economic growth is already slow, with the latest annualized reading on eurozone GDP at just 1.4% and the U.S. not much better at 2.3%. That’s barely above stall speed, so it wouldn’t take much to knock the spinning top on its side. Nick Colas of DataTrek Research notes: “The combination of structurally low inflation, aging populations, and central bank balance sheet expansion has pulled long term interest rates lower, persistently signaling a brewing recessionary storm to market participants.”

As a result, investors ditched oil and gas assets in the wake of reports that the corona virus continues to infect more people worldwide. Iran, Italy and South Korea reported sharp increases in infections, according to Reuters. Italy now has the world's third-largest concentration of corona virus cases and the economy is "vulnerable to disruption from the corona virus, being at serious risk of slipping into recession this quarter," said analysts at Daiwa Capital Markets in a note Monday. I believe that a lot more evidence is needed to make the conclusion that we're at risk of a near-term recession.

Besides, the market has gone up pretty much uninterrupted since the beginning of October 2018 and was very much overdue for a rest. Monday's performance was a mere flesh wound to the charging bull (market).

The good news is that Bespoke (a market quantitative analysis firm) reports that 2%-plus drops on Mondays have historically been bought with a vengeance in the near term. Since March 2009, there have been 18 prior 2%+ drops on Mondays, and SPY (the exchange-traded fund that tracks the S&P 500 index) has seen an average gain of 1.02% on the next day – which is how "Turnaround Tuesday" got its name.

Even more impressive, over the next week, SPY has averaged a huge gain of 3.16% with positive returns 17 out of 18 times. And over the next month, SPY has averaged a gain of 6.08% with positive returns 17 of 18 times as well. Anything can happen, of course--this is the stock market we're talking about here.

The analysts also studied big declines on each day of the week. Turns out that in the month after 2%+ drops on Mondays, SPY has averaged a huge gain of 4.5%.

No guarantees, but investors tend to buy the trip when big stumbles start a week. Sure, it might be short-term, but the pullback so far merely takes back all of the gains we accumulated in February 2020, so we're still slightly up on the year as measured by the S&P 500 index. Can it get worse? Of course, it can, but we need more evidence that the long term uptrend is in jeopardy.

Those that haven't yet hedged their portfolios during this entire bull market run should consider trimming positions or reduce risk in their portfolios on any bounce. It never hurts to take some money off the table, as no one knows if we've topped or we're on our ways to make new all-time highs again. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any securities-you should check with your advisor for the best approach that fits your goals, your risk tolerance and time-frame. For our client portfolios, we've done just that, and will do more of that should the pull-back deepen.

I think we'll get a quick bounce back, and then the market tends to go back and test the lows after a few days. If that low holds, then that could signal that this short-term pullback is over. If it doesn't, then more corrective work is needed to wring out some short-term excesses that are in the market.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so is your financial plan and investment objectives.

Wednesday
Jan012020

Business Tax Provisions of the FCAA

As a year-end holiday gift, Congress included a number of individual and business-friendly tax provisions in its year-end spending package that was signed into law by President Trump on December 20, 2019. The "Further Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2020" (oddly considered a 2020 Act) brought back to life many deductions and credits that had expired at the end of 2017, as well as a few others that had either expired at the end of 2018 or were scheduled to expire at the end of 2019.

In addition, substantial changes were made to retirement-related tax provisions, some of which may benefit your business. The funding for some of these changes will come from increases made to various penalty provisions - notably increases in the penalties for failing to timely file a tax or retirement plan return or timely pay taxes due.

To the extent that your business tax return for 2018 could have benefited from any of the resurrected 2017 tax provisions, you should file an amended return to claim any refunds your business may be due. The 2020 Act changes may also affect your business' 2019 tax liability.

The following is a recap of the new provisions as well as those that expired at the end of 2017 but are now available for 2018 and future tax returns (or were enacted as part of the 2018 tax Act and are now repealed):

Work Opportunity Credit

The work opportunity credit, which was scheduled to expire at the end of 2019, is extended through 2020. An employer is generally allowed a 40 percent credit for qualified first-year wages paid or incurred during the tax year to individuals who are members of a targeted group of employees.

Employer Credit for Paid Family and Medical Leave

The paid family and medical leave credit, which was scheduled to expire at the end of 2019, is extended through 2020. The credit allows eligible employers to claim a general business credit equal to an applicable percentage of the amount of wages paid to qualifying employees during any period in which such employees are on family and medical leave, provided that the rate of payment under the program is at least 50 percent of the wages normally paid to an employee.

New Markets Tax Credit

The New Markets credit, which was scheduled to expire at the end of 2019, is extended through 2020. The New Markets credit provides that a taxpayer is entitled to a credit for a percentage of the amount paid for a qualified equity investment in a qualified community development entity. In addition, if the tax credit limitation for any calendar year exceeds the aggregate amount allocated for such year, such limitation for the succeeding calendar year is increased by the amount of such excess.

Repeal of Increase in Unrelated Business Taxable Income for Certain Fringe Benefit Expenses

Of interest to nonprofits, the 2020 Act eliminates the increase in unrelated business taxable income of an organization for a deduction that was not allowable by reason of Code Sec. 274 and which was paid or incurred by such organization for any qualified transportation fringe, any parking facility used in connection with qualified parking, or any on-premises athletic facility.

As you are aware, providing excellent benefits to employees can make hiring and retaining talented employees much easier. A number of retirement-related tax provisions were enacted in the 2020 Act, including several that may affect your business or might make adopting certain retirement benefits for employees more attractive.

Tax Credit Increase for Small Employer Pension Plan Startup Costs

An eligible small employer may qualify for a nonrefundable income tax credit for qualified startup costs incurred in adopting a new qualified retirement plan, SIMPLE IRA plan, or SEP (i.e., an eligible employer plan), provided that the plan covers at least one non-highly compensated employee. Qualified startup costs are expenses connected with the establishment or administration of the plan or retirement-related education for employees with respect to the plan. Before the 2020 Act, the credit was the lesser of (1) a flat dollar amount of $500 per year, or (2) 50 percent of the qualified startup costs. Under the 2020 Act, the flat dollar amount for a tax year after 2019 is the greater of (1) $500 or (2) the lesser of (a) $250 multiplied by the number of non-highly compensated employees of the eligible employer who are eligible to participate in the plan, or (b) $5,000. As under present law, the credit applies for up to three years. You are considered an eligible small employer if, for the preceding year, your business had no more than 100 employees, each with compensation of $5,000 or more.

Small Employer Automatic Enrollment Credit

For tax years beginning after 2019, an eligible employer is allowed a business tax credit of $500 per year for up to three years for startup costs for new Section 401(k) plans and SIMPLE IRA plans that include automatic enrollment. This credit is in addition to the plan startup credit allowed under present law. An eligible employer is also allowed a credit of $500 per year for up to three years if the employer converts an existing plan to an automatic enrollment design. The credit applies for up to three years beginning with the year the plan is first effective, or, at the election of the employer, with the year preceding the first plan year.

Qualified Cash or Deferred Arrangements Must Allow Part-Time Employees to Participate

The 2020 Act requires a Section 401(k) plan to allow an employee to make elective deferrals if the employee has worked at least 500 hours per year with the employer for at least three consecutive years and has met the age requirement (age 21) by the end of the three consecutive year period (for this purpose, an employee is referred to as a "long-term part-time employee" after having completed this period of service). Thus, if your business has a 401(k) plan, a long-term part-time employee cannot be excluded from the plan because the employee has not completed a year of service as defined under the prior-rule participation requirements (i.e., a 12-month period with at least 1,000 hours of service).

Penalty-Free Withdrawals from Retirement Plans for Individuals in Case of Birth of Child or Adoption

New parents can withdraw up to $5,000 from a qualified employer retirement plan or individual retirement plan without any early withdrawal penalty for a qualified birth or adoption. A qualified birth or adoption distribution is a distribution from an applicable eligible retirement plan to an individual if made during the one-year period beginning on the date on which a child of the individual is born or on which the legal adoption by the individual of an eligible adoptee is finalized. An eligible adoptee means any individual (other than a child of the taxpayer's spouse) who has not attained age 18 or is physically or mentally incapable of self-support.

Employers Can More Safely Offer Annuities as Part of their 401(k) Plans

Besides the hidden costs of owning an annuity, one of the concerns companies had for offering them in a 401(k) plan was the viability of the annuity provider (insurance company). If the insurance company got into financial trouble, as some did during the 2008-2009 financial crisis, they might not pay out. The Act increases legal coverage for employers, just in case their employees sue them because their annuity provider goes out of business and does not pay.

 

Other deductions and credits which were scheduled to expire but have been extended include the following:

Special Expensing Rules for Film, TV, or Theatrical Productions

The owner of a qualified film or television production or a qualified live theatrical production that began after 2015 and before 2021 may elect to deduct production costs in the year the costs are paid or incurred in lieu of capitalizing the costs and recovering them through depreciation allowances.

Energy Efficient Home Credit

The credit for energy-efficient homes is extended to 2018, 2019, and 2020 for homes acquired after December 31, 2017. The credit applies to contractors who construct or manufacture qualifying energy-efficient homes in the year such homes are sold or leased for use as a residence. The credit is $2,000 or $1,000, depending on whether the home is constructed or manufactured and on the energy-saving standards satisfied.

Alternative Fuel Refueling Property Credit

The credit under Code Sec. 30C for alternative fuel refueling property is extended to property placed in service before January 1, 2021. The credit is equal to 30 percent of the cost of any qualified alternative fuel vehicle refueling property placed in service by the taxpayer during the tax year.

Qualified Fuel Cell Motor Vehicles Credit

The alternative motor vehicle fuel credit is extended to motor vehicles purchased before 2021. The credit applies to vehicles propelled by chemically combining oxygen with hydrogen and creating electricity (i.e., fuel cell vehicles). The base credit is $4,000 for vehicles weighing 8,500 pounds or less. Heavier vehicles can get up to a $40,000 credit, depending on their weight. An additional $1,000 to $4,000 credit is available to cars and light trucks to the extent their fuel economy exceeds the 2002 base fuel economy set forth in the Code.

Two-Wheeled Plug-In Electric Vehicle Credit

The credit applicable for the acquisition of a qualified two-wheeled plug-in electric drive motor vehicle has been extended and now applies to vehicles acquired before January 1, 2021.

Credit for Electricity Produced from Certain Renewable Resources

The credit for electricity produced from certain renewable resources at qualified facilities is extended through 2020. In addition, (1) the election to treat qualified facilities as energy property is available through 2020; (2) a wind facility under construction, where the construction of the facility begins before January 1, 2021, is a qualified facility for purposes of the credit; and (3) for purposes of the phaseout of the credit for wind facilities, the credit amount is 40 percent for any facility the construction of which begins after December 31, 2019, and before January 1, 2021.

Biodiesel and Renewable Diesel Incentives

The credit for certain biodiesel or renewable diesel used or sold as fuel in a trade or business is extended through 2022. There are five components to this credit: (1) the biodiesel credit; (2) the renewable diesel credit; (3) the biodiesel mixture credit; (4) the renewable diesel mixture credit; and (5) the small agri-biodiesel producer credit. In addition, the credit for alcohol fuel, biodiesel, and alternative fuel mixtures is extended to any sale or use for any period before January 1, 2023.

Energy-Efficient Commercial Buildings Deduction

The deduction available for the cost of energy-efficient commercial building property is extended to property placed in service before 2021. The deduction is limited to the excess (if any) of (1) the product of $1.80 and the square footage of the building, over (2) the aggregate amount of the energy-efficient commercial property deductions allowed with respect to the building for all prior tax years.

Classification of Certain Race Horses as 3-Year Property

The three-year depreciation period now applies to any racehorse placed in service before 2021.

Classification of Motorsports Entertainment Complexes as 7-Year Property

The seven-year depreciation period for certain motorsports entertainment complex now applies to any such property placed in service before January 1, 2021.

Accelerated Depreciation Deduction for Business Property on Indian Reservations

The accelerated depreciation deduction for qualified Indian reservation property now applies to property placed in service before January 1, 2021.

Indian Employment Credit

Under the Indian employment credit, employers are allowed a credit for a percentage of the wages and health insurance costs paid to employees who are American Indians. This credit is now available through the end of 2020. However, the total amount of wages and health insurance costs that may be taken into account for any qualified employee for a tax year is limited to $20,000.

 

Finally, the 2020 Act also made some taxpayer and business-friendly changes with respect to disaster-related events.

Employee Retention Credit for Employers Affected by Qualified Disasters

The 2020 Act provides a credit of 40 percent of the qualified wages (up to a maximum of $6,000 in qualified wages per employee) paid by an eligible employer to an eligible employee. You are an ''eligible employer'' if you (1) conducted an active trade or business in a qualified disaster zone at any time during the incident period of the qualified disaster with respect to such qualified disaster zone, and (2) if your trade or business is inoperable at any time during the period beginning on the first day of the incident period of such qualified disaster and ending on December 20, 2019, as a result of damage sustained by reason of such qualified disaster.

Automatic Extension of Filing Deadlines for Businesses Affected by Federally Declared Disasters

The 2020 Act provides that, in the case of a federally declared disaster, a qualified taxpayer is entitled to a mandatory 60-day extension with respect to filing returns and paying tax due. The 60-day period begins on the earliest incident date specified in the declaration of the relevant disaster and ends on the date which is 60 days after the latest incident date so specified.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other financial or tax planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so is your financial plan and investment objectives.

Monday
Dec302019

A Last-Minute 2019 Holiday Gift from Congress

Leave it to Congress to pass a last-minute tax bill to cap off 2019 and send CPAs and estate planning attorneys scrambling. They call it the "Further Consolidated Appropriations Act" (FCAA). I call it the "CPA and Attorney Employment Security Bill."

As a year-end holiday gift, Congress included a number of individual and business-friendly tax provisions in its year-end spending package that was signed into law by President Trump on December 20, 2019. The FCAA, (oddly considered a 2020 Act) brought back to life many deductions and credits that had expired at the end of 2017, as well as a few others that had either expired at the end of 2018 or were scheduled to expire at the end of 2019. In addition, new disaster-related tax provisions have been added and substantial changes were made to retirement-related tax provisions. Some of the funding for these changes will come from increases made to various penalty provisions - notably increases in the penalties for failing to timely file a tax return or timely pay the tax due.

To the extent that you could have benefited from any of the resurrected 2017 tax provisions on your 2018 tax return, we should file an amended return to claim any refunds you may be due. The 2020 Act changes may also affect your 2019 tax liability.

Some of the retirement-related (and quite significant) provisions which may be of interest to you include the following:

Repeal of Maximum Age for Traditional IRA Contributions

The prohibition on contributions to a traditional IRA by an individual who has attained age 70½ has been repealed.

Increase in Age for Required Beginning Date for Mandatory Distributions

The required beginning date for required minimum distributions has been increased to 72 years old from 70 ½ years old. The former rules continue to apply to employees and IRA owners who attain age 70½ prior to January 1, 2020. The new provision is effective for distributions required to be made after December 31, 2019, with respect to individuals who attain age 70½ after December 31, 2019.

Inherited IRA's Must Be Distributed within 10 Years

A stretch IRA was an estate planning strategy that extended the tax-deferred status of an inherited IRA when it is passed to a non-spouse beneficiary. Theoretically, an IRA could be passed on from generation to generation while beneficiaries enjoyed tax-deferred and/or tax-free growth. The passage of this Act now shortens that period considerably.

Under the new law, most beneficiaries will have to withdraw all the distributions from their inherited account and pay taxes on it within 10 years. Exceptions are made for spouses, your minor children and the chronically ill or disabled.

For those who inherit an IRA after January 1, 2020, the stretch IRA is no longer available. For those who inherited an IRA before January 1, 2020, you can continue to defer your tax liability as usual.

If you have an estate plan that includes a pass-through trust as a beneficiary, you will need to set up an appointment with your estate planning attorney to avoid a potential tax "disaster" for trust beneficiaries at the conclusion of the 10th year. I will have more about this in a separate post soon. If you have minor children (or grandchildren) and don't have a trust, you will want to talk to an estate planning attorney as well.

Penalty-Free Withdrawals from Retirement Plans for Individuals in Case of Birth of Child or Adoption

A new exception to the 10-percent early withdrawal tax applies in the case of a qualified birth or adoption distribution of up to $5,000 from an applicable eligible retirement plan. A qualified birth or adoption distribution is a distribution from an applicable eligible retirement plan to an individual if made during the one-year period beginning on the date on which a child of the individual is born or on which the legal adoption by the individual of an eligible adoptee is finalized. An eligible adoptee means any individual (other than a child of the taxpayer's spouse) who has not attained age 18 or is physically or mentally incapable of self-support.

Certain Taxable Non-Tuition Fellowship and Stipend Payments Treated As Compensation for IRA Purposes

For tax years after 2019, an amount includible in an individual's income and paid to the individual to aid the individual in the pursuit of graduate or postdoctoral study or research (such as a fellowship, stipend, or similar amount) is treated as compensation for purposes of IRA contributions.

The following is a recap of the provisions that have been extended and that may require the filing of an amended tax return for 2018.

Deduction for Qualified Tuition and Related Expenses

The deduction for qualified tuition and related expenses is now available for 2018, 2019, and 2020 and applies to qualified education expenses paid during the year for yourself, your spouse, or a dependent. The maximum deduction is $4,000 of expenses if your modified adjusted gross income does not exceed $65,000 ($130,000 in the case of a joint return). If your income is more than that, you can still deduct $2,000, as long as your adjusted gross income does not exceed $80,000 ($160,000 in the case of a joint return).

Expansion of Section 529 Plans

Several changes were made to the rules involving Section 529 plans - tax-advantaged savings plans designed to accumulate funds for future educational needs. First, tax-free distributions for higher education expenses now to apply to expenses for fees, books, supplies, and equipment required for the participation of a designated beneficiary in an apprenticeship program. The apprenticeship program must be registered and certified with the Secretary of Labor under Section 1 of the National Apprenticeship Act. Second, tax-free treatment applies to distributions of certain amounts used to make payments on the principal or interest of a qualified education loan. No individual may receive more than $10,000 of such distributions, in aggregate, over the course of the individual's lifetime. Third, a special rule allows tax-free distributions to a sibling of a designated beneficiary (i.e., a brother, sister, stepbrother, or stepsister). This rule allows a 529 account holder to make a student loan distribution to a sibling of the designated beneficiary without changing the designated beneficiary of the account.

Treatment of Mortgage Insurance Premiums as Qualified Residence Interest

For 2018, 2019, and 2020, you can treat amounts paid during the year for qualified mortgage insurance as qualified residence interest. The insurance must be in connection with acquisition debt for a qualified residence.

Exclusion from Gross Income of Discharge of Qualified Principal Residence Indebtedness

For 2018, 2019, and 2020, gross income does not include the discharge of indebtedness of a taxpayer if the debt discharged is qualified principal residence indebtedness which is discharged before January 1, 2021.

Elimination of Certain Kiddie Tax Provisions

If you have a child that was subject to the new kiddie tax rules that went into effect in 2018, those rules have now been repealed retroactive to the date they were adopted. As a result, the onerous trust and estate tax rates that applied to the child's unearned income in 2018 no longer apply. Similarly, the reduced AMT exemption amount for such children has been eliminated.

Nonbusiness Energy Property Credit

The nonbusiness energy property credit is extended to property placed in service in 2018, 2019, and 2020. The nonbusiness energy property credit is available for (1) 10 percent of the amounts paid or incurred for qualified energy efficiency improvements installed during the tax year, and (2) the amount of residential energy property expenditures paid or incurred during the tax year.

Alternative Fuel Refueling Property Credit

The credit for alternative fuel refueling property has been extended to property placed in service in 2018, 2019, and 2020. The credit is equal to 30 percent of the cost of any qualified alternative fuel vehicle refueling property placed in service by the taxpayer during the tax year.

Two-Wheeled Plug-In Electric Vehicle Credit

The credit available for the purchase of a qualified two-wheeled plug-in electric drive motor vehicle is extended to vehicles acquired in 2018, 2019, and 2020.

Other changes made by the 2020 Act which may affect your 2019 tax return and future tax returns includes the following:

Reduction in Medical Expense Deduction Floor

The floor for deducting medical expenses for 2019 and 2020 has been reduced from 10 percent of adjusted gross income to 7.5 percent of adjusted gross income. In addition, there is no adjustment to the medical expense deduction when computing the alternative minimum tax for 2019 and 2020.

Disaster-related provisions in the 2020 Act include the following:

Exception to Penalty for Using Retirement Funds

An exception to the 10-percent early withdrawal tax on a retirement-related distribution applies in the case of "qualified disaster distributions" from a qualified retirement plan, a Code Sec. 403(b) plan, or an individual retirement account (IRA). In addition, income attributable to a qualified disaster distribution may be included in income ratably over three years, and the amount of a qualified disaster distribution may be recontributed to an eligible retirement plan within three years. A "qualified disaster distribution" is any distribution from an eligible retirement plan made on or after the first day of the incident period of a qualified disaster and before June 18, 2020, to an individual whose principal place of abode at any time during the incident period is located in the qualified disaster area and who has sustained an economic loss by reason of such disaster, regardless of whether a distribution otherwise would be permissible.

Special Rules for Qualified Disaster-Related Personal Casualty Losses

Under a new provision, in the case of a qualified disaster-related personal casualty loss which arose as the result of a net disaster loss, such loss is deductible without regard to whether aggregate net losses exceed 10 percent of your adjusted gross income. In order to be deductible, however, such losses must exceed $500 per casualty. Such losses may be claimed in addition to the standard deduction and may be claimed even if you are subject to the alternative minimum tax.

Special Rule for Determining Earned Income

If you qualify, you may elect to calculate your earned income tax credit and additional child tax credit for an applicable tax year using your earned income from the prior tax year. Qualified individuals are permitted to make the election with respect to an applicable tax year only if their earned income for such tax year is less than their earned income for the preceding tax year. You are a qualified individual if (1) at any time during the incident period of a qualified disaster, you had your principal residence in the applicable qualified disaster zone, or (2) during any portion of such incident period, you were not in the applicable qualified disaster zone but your principal residence was in the applicable qualified disaster area and you were displaced from such principal place of abode by reason of the qualified disaster.

Automatic Extension of Filing Deadlines in the Case of Federally Declared Disasters

In the case of a federally declared disaster, qualified taxpayers get a mandatory 60-day extension period for filing and paying taxes.

Business Provisions

Please look to a separate post concerning business provisions from the Act to be posted on January 1, 2020.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so is your financial plan and investment objectives.