Some Cures For Your “Social InSecurity”

Some Cures For Your “Social InSecurity”

 One of the most common questions I hear from clients and prospects concerns the viability of the social security system and the likelihood it will be solvent enough to pay their benefits when they eventually reach retirement age. Their default instinct is to draw social security at the earliest possible age in case benefits were to run out prematurely. As you’ll read below, the Social Security program has many possible tweaks to help extend the payment of benefits for many decades to come and should help alleviate much of your Social InSecurity.

With approximately 94% of American workers covered by Social Security and 65 million people currently receiving benefits, keeping Social Security healthy is a major concern. According to the Social Security Administration, Social Security isn't in danger of going broke — it's financed primarily through payroll taxes — but its financial health is declining, and future benefits may eventually be reduced unless Congress acts.

Each year, the Trustees of the Social Security Trust Funds release a detailed report to Congress that assesses the financial health and outlook of this program. The most recent report, released on June 2, 2022, shows that the effects of the pandemic were not as significant as projected in last year's report — a bit of good news this year.

Overall, the news is mixed for Social Security

The Social Security program consists of two programs, each with its own financial account (trust fund) that holds the payroll taxes that are collected to pay Social Security benefits. Retired workers, their families, and survivors of workers receive monthly benefits under the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) program; disabled workers and their families receive monthly benefits under the Disability     Insurance (DI) program. Other income (reimbursements from the General Fund of the U.S. Treasury and income tax revenue from benefit taxation) is also deposited in these accounts.

Money that's not needed in the current year to pay benefits and administrative costs is invested (by law) in special government-guaranteed Treasury bonds that earn interest. Over time, the Social Security Trust Funds have built up reserves that can be used to cover benefit obligations if payroll tax income is insufficient to pay full benefits, and these reserves are now being drawn down. Due to the aging population and other demographic factors, contributions from workers are no longer enough to fund current benefits.

In the latest report, the Trustees estimate that Social Security will have funds to pay full retirement and survivor benefits until 2034, one year later than in last year's report. At that point, reserves will be used up, and payroll tax revenue alone would be enough to pay only 77% of scheduled OASI benefits, declining to 72% through 2096, the end of the 75-year, long-range projection period.

The Disability Insurance Trust Fund is projected to be much healthier over the long term than last year's report predicted. The Trustees now estimate that it will be able to pay full benefits through the end of 2096. Last year's report projected that it would be able to pay scheduled benefits only until 2057. Applications for disability benefits have been declining substantially since 2010, and the number of workers receiving disability benefits has been falling since 2014, a trend that continues to affect the long-term outlook.

According to the Trustees report, the combined reserves (OASDI) will be able to pay scheduled benefits until 2035, one year later than in last year's report. After that, payroll tax revenue alone should be sufficient to pay 80% of scheduled benefits, declining to 74% by 2096. OASDI projections are hypothetical, because the OASI and DI Trust Funds are separate, and generally one program's taxes and     reserves cannot be used to fund the other program. However, this could be changed by Congress, and combining these trust funds in the report is a way to illustrate the financial outlook for Social Security as a whole.

All projections are based on current conditions and best estimates of likely future demographic, economic, and program-specific conditions, and the Trustees acknowledge that the course of the pandemic and future events may affect Social Security's financial status.

You can view a copy of the 2022 Trustees report at ssa.gov 

Many options for improving the health of Social Security

The last 10 Trustees Reports have projected that the combined OASDI reserves will become depleted between 2033 and 2035. The Trustees continue to urge Congress to address the financial challenges facing these programs so that solutions will be less drastic and may be implemented gradually, lessening the impact on the public. Many options have been proposed, including the ones listed below. Combining some of these may help soften the impact of any one solution:

• Raising the current Social Security payroll tax rate (currently 12.4%). Half is currently paid by the employee and half by the employer (self-employed individuals pay the full 12.4%). An immediate and permanent payroll tax increase of 3.24 percentage points to 15.64% would be needed to cover the long-range revenue shortfall.
• Raising or eliminating the ceiling on wages subject to Social Security payroll taxes ($147,000 in 2022).
• Raising the full retirement age beyond the currently scheduled age of 67 (for anyone born in 1960 or later).
• Raising the early retirement age beyond the current age of 62.
• Reducing future benefits. To address the long-term revenue shortfall, scheduled benefits would have to be immediately and permanently reduced by about 20.3% for all current and future beneficiaries, or by about 24.1% if reductions were applied only to those who initially become eligible for benefits in 2022 or later.
• Changing the benefit formula that is used to calculate benefits.
• Calculating the annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for benefits differently.

A comprehensive list of potential solutions can be found at ssa.gov.

As for when Congress will act to fix the system, in my opinion, it will probably be at the last minute when it becomes a crisis. But make no mistake-Congress will act, and any rumors or stories that social security won’t be around for the long term are simply false. Any member of Congress who votes against fixing and extending the system’s heath won’t be re-elected, and therefore you know they eventually will.

As for when you should consider drawing your own social security benefits, the unsatisfying answer is: it depends. Whether you should draw benefits at your early retirement age (usually 62), full retirement age (usually 67) or latest retirement age (70), depends on your financial situation, your spending needs, expected longevity and other factors. Only working with a financial planner or a comprehensive social security optimizer can help you figure out the optimal timeframe to claim social security. The right or wrong decision can increase or decrease your lifetime benefits by five or six zeroes---it’s worth the time and effort to do the analysis. We can, of course, help.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss your social security benefits, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so is your financial plan and investment objectives.

What's going on in the Markets June 20, 2022

With ten days to go in the 2^nd calendar quarter and the end of the first half of 2022, we’ve witnessed one of the worst yearly starts in the markets since 1962 with a decline of about 23% in the S&P 500 index. This makes this year the 3^rd worst start for the index in market history.  

The good news? Of the fourteen other worst starts to the year since 1931, ten of them went on to turn in positive returns for the rest of the year, although only five of those fourteen years turned things around and closed with positive returns for the entire year.

Mid-term election years (the 2^nd year of a president’s term) have historically been lackluster, but that doesn’t entirely explain why this year has been so awful. Of course, the same culprits outlined in my What’s Going on in the Markets May 8, 2022 newsletter are still front and center today: 1. The war in the Ukraine; 2. Rising inflation; 3. Higher interest rates. A resolution in any of these three culprits could send the markets on a big trek higher.

To be fair, the markets were rife with speculation in all manners of stocks, special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs), initial public offerings, crypto-currencies, non-fungible tokens (NFTs) and other insane valuations of art, homes, antiques, etc. Most of this rampant speculation was fueled by the unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus unleashed in the markets by the Federal Reserve and Federal Government to combat a potential economic depression caused by COVID-19. As happens most often, a pendulum that swings too far in one direction must swing too far in the other direction to correct the excess. That’s the nature of cycles-both economic and markets.

From the pandemic low in March 2020 to the high in January 2022, the S&P 500 index more than doubled (+108%), so a market that moves that far in less than two years would historically be expected to give back (retrace) some of those gains at some point. To most students of long-term markets, giving back 50% or more of those gains would not be unusual at all before the uptrend might resume. At a closing level of about 3,678 as of last Friday, that would take the S&P 500 index to around 3,500, about 5% lower than Friday’s close. Nothing says it must stop there, but that level historically would be expected to generate at least a decent bounce or short-term rally.

Adding insult to injury, this has also been one of the worst starts in over 40 years in the bond markets. Long adding ballast to portfolios and a relative haven from the stock market storms, bonds on average are down over 12% year-to-date, with long term treasuries down over 24%. Even 1–3 year treasury bills are down about 3.7%, making even the safest and shortest of duration government bonds not immune from the carnage. Of course, when bond prices decline, their yields increase, so they become more attractive for new investments.

The perfect storm of a bond and stock market decline means that there have been few places to hide, other than energy and commodity stocks. Of course, energy and commodity stock outperformance mean higher prices for goods, which is at the heart of the inflation problem we now have.

Inflation Marches Higher

When so much stimulus enters the economy and markets in a short time, inflation inevitably rears its ugly head. Think of fiscal and monetary stimulus as money printing, and you can quickly understand how adding so many dollars to the money supply would tend to de-value those dollars. Indeed, when the inflation numbers were released for April and May (8.6% and 8.4% consumer price index respectively), they were higher than expected.  Relief in the supply chain logjam was not enough to offset the increased cost of labor, energy, and commodities (mostly raw materials and foodstuff).

Obviously, inflation at this level cannot be sustained longer term and needs to be tamed before it crashes the economy as consumers begin having trouble affording necessities, let alone discretionary purchases. It’s one of the two mandates of the Federal Reserve (The Fed): to reel in inflation using the tools at their disposal to prevent an economic crash.

Interest Rate Hikes

The dual mandates of The Fed are to:

1. Maintain price stability (by keeping inflation to 2% or less) and,

2. Ensure maximum employment.

With unemployment at historic lows, maintaining price stability is currently job #1 for The Fed.

When the pandemic hit, you may recall that The Fed immediately reduced short-term interest rates from 2.25% to 0% to counter the expected economic contraction effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. They also launched one of the biggest asset purchase plans (bond buying) in history as an emergency measure to ensure enough liquidity in the financial system to keep the economy and commerce from seizing up. The Fed kept these asset purchases up through March of this year (far longer than necessary in my opinion), thereby flooding the markets with stimulus.

Beginning in April, The Fed raised short term interest rates by 0.25% for the first time and announced that the bonds bought over the past several years would be sold off over time. Of course, if injecting the markets with all that stimulus and maintaining low interest rates props the markets up, withdrawing that liquidity and raising interest rates should have the exact opposite effect--and of course it has.

The Fed followed up with a 0.5% and 0.75% short term interest rate hike in May and June respectively, bringing the short-term rate to around 1.5%. During the June meeting, The Fed telegraphed that a further 0.5% or 0.75% interest rate hike could be forthcoming in July (and future months) if inflation doesn’t ease in the coming month. Of course, with inflation running over 8%, The Fed, with short term interest rates around 1.5%, is still woefully behind the curve. Many pundits and critics want them to move much faster to tame inflation.

Low interest rates (near 0% for over two years) represent “cheap money” to individuals and companies, encouraging investment, spending, borrowing, and of course speculation. All of that tends to make for an overheated economy, pushing prices higher. Raising interest rates tends to curb the demand for capital and overall spending, thereby reducing pressure on the supply of goods and services, and in turn, reducing pressure on prices. But by doing so, The Fed risks pushing the economy into a recession.

Recession or Soft Landing

The Fed has acknowledged that lifting interest rates may curb consumer and corporate demand enough to push the economy into a recession. Fact is, it’s possible that we’re already in a recession but don’t know it yet.

The textbook definition of a recession is at least “two consecutive calendar quarters of negative gross domestic product or GDP.” For the first quarter of 2022, the economy did register a negative GDP of 1.3%, and the second quarter could potentially register a similar small negative GDP. As of Friday June 16, the Atlanta Federal Reserve lowered GDP estimates for the 2^nd quarter to about 0%, which means that it could easily turn negative by the end of the quarter, putting us into a an official recession.

Regardless of how the 2^nd quarter plays out, textbook recession or not, I would expect that any recession would be another mild or short one (like the short-lived COVID recession of 2020) as we try and squeeze out much of the excesses brought on by the post-COVID over-stimulus. While you’re likely to be bombarded (and scared witless) by the news media about how the economy has officially fallen into a recession, it remains to be seen how long and how bad it might get. With housing and employment still strong, and corporate earnings holding steady, (albeit weakening somewhat with everything else), the recession should prove to be mild or moderate in my opinion.

What To Do Now

The market is currently in what I would characterize as “no-man’s land”. That’s to say that it’s too late to sell and yet probably too early to buy. As mentioned above, we have the potential to visit the 50% retracement level of S&P 500 at 3,500, 5% lower from here. But the selling was so intense last week, that could be considered somewhat exhaustive, or capitulatory as some refer to it in the business. While bad things tend to get worse in the markets before they get better, the proverbial rubber band to the downside is firmly stretched, meaning that a strong snapback rally could start as early as tomorrow, if not later this week or next.

In a mid-term election year, we tend to see a summer rally from late June into mid-July, with weakness or sideways movement persisting throughout the August-October period. But post-election, a year-end relief rally into the spring tends to be strong. So unfortunately, any relief rally in June/July may prove fleeting, with much better probabilities for a long-term rally coming in the 4^th quarter. Of course, this is all crystal ball prognostication, relying on history to project future returns. This should not be relied on to make investment/portfolio decisions.

So, what about nibbling at stocks and stock funds (and even bonds) with the market down so much? While dollar cost averaging over time has a successful track record, the key is your own personal discipline to continue investing at regular intervals and knowing that it may take months or years to become profitable on new buys, especially if this market doesn’t find a bottom until late this year or next.

Those who bought in mid-2008 thinking that the bottom was in found out that they had to endure another 30% drawdown until the ultimate bottom in March 2009. In the end, this all turned out great for long term holders, albeit with a little pain.

If you are confident that you won’t sell everything if the market continues lower and reach your own capitulation point, there’s nothing wrong with nibbling on names that have come down to attractive levels. Personally, I prefer to see signs of strong demand returning from large institutions, something that is still absent at these levels. The path of least resistance, as of today, is unfortunately lower, but that could easily change in a day or two of strong buying.

For our client portfolios, we came into the 2^nd quarter with one of our lowest allocations to stocks and bonds in years. We continue to be hedged with cash, stock options and bear market funds, and we continue to harvest profits and raise cash. If we see further weakness and no return of demand from institutions, we will further increase our hedges and continue to sell underperforming positions into any rallies that “peter out” in short order.

If you find yourself stuck in positions that no longer meet your initial criteria for buying them in the first place, consider using upcoming rallies to sell them (even at a loss) and upgrade your portfolio with better performing companies at the right time. Instead of big bites, take little nibbles, and keep in mind that bear market rallies are very good at sucking in investors and convincing them that the selloff is over, only to roll over and make lower lows. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

No one knows how deep the market will pull back. Have we seen the lows, or do we have some ways to go? I personally think we may have seen the worst of it, but that’s just a gut feeling. That doesn’t mean that I believe that the sell-off is over. Similarly, we have no idea if the next rally will mark the bottom of this pullback or just be another “suckers’ rally”.

In the end, these somewhat painful periods always end, paving the way for a new long-term uptrend (a.k.a., a bull market). As I always echo, investing in the stock market is great for long term returns, as long as you don’t get scared out of it at the wrong time. After all, enduring volatility is the price we pay for outsized long-term returns. Be patient and stay small with buys to keep your risk in line with your own tolerance.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so is your financial plan and investment objectives.

What’s Going on in the Markets May 8, 2022

It was another down week in the stock markets, which, under the surface, was worse than the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 indexes being down only about 0.25% might have suggested. Volatility continues to rule the markets daily as investors and traders try to discount the effects of inflation, interest rate hikes, a raging war, and the possibility of a recession in the coming months.

Speaking of interest rate hikes, the Federal Reserve (The Fed) met last week and raised short-term interest rates by 0.5% (bringing them to 0.75%-1.00%). The Fed signaled that more 0.5% interest hikes were likely coming and also mentioned that single day 0.75% hikes were not being considered. Although the markets breathed a sigh of relief on Wednesday and rallied about 3% from the day’s lows, that rally was short-lived as the markets gave it all back and more on Thursday and Friday.

As of Friday's close, the S&P 500 index is down about 13.5%, while the harder-hit tech-heavy NASDAQ is down about 22.3% year-to-date. Those figures, however, don't reflect the level of carnage under the surface, where some growth stocks are down as much as 80% from their prior peaks. Strength in the markets is found in energy stocks (where oil prices continue to float above $100 a barrel) and defensive stocks (consumer staples, some healthcare, and utilities).

Even bonds, long known to provide ballast to stocks, are down about 11% year-to-date and have not held up their end of the bargain. Bonds are having one of their worst starts to the year since the 1970s. Even if you're hiding out in 1–3 year short-term treasury bonds, you're still down about 3.1% since the beginning of the year. The typical 60/40 (stock/bond) portfolio has provided no shelter from the recent market storm.

When you see both stocks and bonds down in tandem, the usual culprit is an inflationary environment. Last month's government report on inflation, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), showed inflation rose 1.2% in March, translating to an annualized rate of 8.5%. This coming Wednesday, we get the read on April inflation, which should see inflation easing from March levels (based on reports of declining used car prices, lower demand for homes, and supply chain improvements).

The Fed has two core mandates as its mission: 1) keep unemployment low and 2) maintain price stability.

At this point, The Fed has no choice but to raise interest rates to try and tame the inflation beast. Unfortunately, raising short-term interest rates has the side effect of slowing economic activity because capital becomes more expensive for both consumers and companies, thereby forcing a slowdown of discretionary purchases and capital improvements (and stock buybacks, which buoy the markets). We are already seeing a slight easing in housing market pressures as 30-year mortgage rates tick above 5%.

Inflation at the current rates is simply not tenable, and therefore The Fed must do what it can to keep the prices of goods and services at prices that consumers can afford.

Further taming of the inflation beast with short-term interest rate hikes can sometimes cause such a slowdown in the economy that we see negative growth in the gross domestic product (GDP), as was reported in the 1^st quarter of 2022 when GDP unexpectedly contracted by 0.4% (which is an annualized rate of 1.4%).

As of the end of the 1^st quarter, we had only experienced a single 0.25% short-term interest rate hike by The Fed, so that was not the proximate cause of the decline in GDP. More likely, the side effects of the ongoing war in Ukraine, a complete lockdown in parts of China because of COVID resurgence, and inflation worries all weighed on the economy in an otherwise environment of robust consumer demand.

The definition of an economic recession is two consecutive quarters of contracting GDP, so 2^nd quarter 2022 GDP is pivotal in determining whether we’re already in an economic recession. Perhaps that’s what has the markets worried.

Also on the economic front, both the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing Index and the ISM Services Index remained at high levels last month; however, there is some weakness developing under the surface. The ISM Manufacturing Index has fallen in five of the last six months, while new orders for the services sector fell to a 14-month low. At the same time, prices have remained stubbornly high in both indexes, which raises the possibility of economic stagflation (inflation + slowing economy) in the coming months.

What About Now?

While the markets continue their correction (pullback), we have continued to get more defensive in our client portfolios by selling more (underperforming) positions, adding to our hedges, and tightening up our option selling. Unfortunately, in a rising volatility environment, the fruits of our option selling labor don’t begin to show up in client portfolio results until after the volatility subsides, or those sold options expire. That doesn’t mean we won’t continue to allocate to those strategies to reduce portfolio risk, but in the short term, they may not display the intended positive portfolio effects.

While I don’t have a working crystal ball, I’ve seen little evidence that the volatility is about to subside anytime soon. Though the markets are oversold (stretched to the downside) on a short-term basis, we have not seen any bounces that have lasted longer than a day or two, at least not since late March. We are certainly overdue for a robust bounce that lasts at least a few weeks or months, but I don’t see any evidence to believe that we’re at a durable long-term bottom yet.

Therefore, this back-and-forth choppy action may continue until after the mid-term elections, as is typical for this part of the presidential cycle. We may also need to shake out more weak hands in the short term and get to some level of capitulation or panic in order to get a sustainable rally.

One contrary indicator, investor sentiment about the markets, is at some of the lowest levels--some levels on par with sentiment during the great financial crisis in 2007-2009 and the COVID crisis, hinting that investors are not very exuberant about investing in the markets. Another contrary indicator, mutual fund flows, shows that investors of late are cashing out of stocks in recent weeks, which means at some point, many will be forced to buy back their stocks in the near future.

If you’re not a client of ours, I hope you have taken some action with your portfolio during the prior market rallies, to reduce your overall risk and exposure to the stock market. Whether selling some underperforming positions, buying some bear market funds, or just hedging your portfolio in one way or another, figure out a way to reduce your overall portfolio risk. Don’t wait until the market is down a lot before taking some action. You want to have some cash on hand to pick up some “bargains” once the market resumes its uptrend.

If you have not, or if you still feel overexposed, you should consider doing so during the next market rally to bring your portfolio more in line with your own personal risk tolerance. This is especially true if you find yourself worried about your investments more than usual these days. Remember, no one can control what the market does, but you and only you can control the risk you’re taking and the amount of the loss you wish to sustain. If you’re picking up anything on this downturn, keep it small and expect that you’ll have to wait some time to become profitable on these positions. Disclaimer: None of the foregoing should be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Please consult with your own financial advisor or talk to us if you need help.

In a rising interest rate environment where inflation is not yet under control, and where The Fed is now a net seller of bond assets (instead of a buyer), stocks will have a hard time making it back to old highs, not to mention making new ones. While the 13-year-old bull market may not be finally dead, I don’t see this environment as friendly to investing as it has been in the recent past. Don’t assume that the “beach-ball” market that absorbed all manner of “meme stocks”, special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs), Ponzi stocks, a flood of IPOs, and additional stock offerings is going to come roaring back, because I don’t believe that it will anytime soon. Remember, if your favorite stock is down 50%, you need it to double just to get back to even. I don’t think you can count on that anytime soon either.

There’s a saying in the investing world that most have heard: “Don’t Fight The Fed.” That means when The Fed is accommodative with low-interest rates and is actively providing liquidity to the markets (as they mostly have for the past 13 years), you’re essentially investing with the wind at your back. In that environment, you want to be a net buyer, not a net seller of securities.

If you believe that saying is true during the accommodative periods, then trying to fight the Fed when they are withdrawing liquidity and raising interest rates and insisting that the market should go up in the face of those headwinds would not make much sense during the non-accommodative period we’re experiencing right now.  A time of Fed accommodation will return at some point but be patient and cautious with new investments until then.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so is your financial plan and investment objectives.

Minimum Distribution, Maximum Confusion

Summary: The RMD 10-year rule substantially reduces the ability of most non-spouse beneficiaries to stretch distributions from an inherited defined contribution plan or IRA after the death of the original owner.

The Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement (SECURE) Act of 2019 changed the rules for taking distributions from retirement accounts inherited after 2019. The new so-called "10-year rule" generally requires inherited accounts to be emptied within 10 years of the original owner's death, with some exceptions. When no exception applies, the entire account must be emptied within 10 years of the beneficiary's death, or within 10 years after a minor child, beneficiary reaches age 21. This reduces the ability of most beneficiaries to spread out, or "stretch," distributions from an inherited defined contribution plan or an IRA.

In February 2022, the IRS issued proposed regulations (generally applicable starting in 2022) that interpret the revised required minimum distribution (RMD) rules. Unless these proposals are amended, some beneficiaries could be subject to annual required distributions as well as a full distribution at the end of a 10-year period. Account owners and their beneficiaries may want to familiarize themselves with these new interpretations and how they might be affected by them.

RMD Basics

If you own a traditional IRA or participate in a retirement plan like a 401(k), you generally must start taking RMDs for the year you reach age 72 (age 70½ if you were born before July 1, 1949). If you're age 72 or older and still working for the employer that maintains the retirement plan, you may be able to wait until the year after retiring to start RMDs from that account. No RMDs are required from a Roth IRA during your lifetime (beneficiaries are subject to inherited retirement account rules). Failing to take an RMD can be costly: a 50% penalty generally applies to the extent an RMD is not made.

The beginning date for the first year you are required to take a lifetime distribution is no later than April 1 of the next year. After your first distribution, annual distributions must be taken by the end of each year. (Note that if you wait until April 1 to take your first-year distribution, you would have to take two distributions for that year: one by April 1 and the other by December 31. This has the potential to spike your tax rate, so discuss this with your financial or tax planner before deciding to defer your first RMD.)

When you die, the RMD rules also govern how quickly your retirement plan or IRA will need to be distributed to your beneficiaries. The rules are largely based on two factors: (1) the individuals you select as beneficiaries of your retirement plan, and (2) whether you pass away before or on or after your required beginning date (RBD). Because no lifetime RMDs are required from a Roth IRA, Roth IRA owners are always treated as dying before their required beginning date.

Who Is Subject to the 10-Year Rule?

The SECURE Act does still allow certain beneficiaries to continue to "stretch" distributions, at least to some extent. These eligible designated beneficiaries (EDBs) include your surviving spouse, your minor children, any individual not more than 10 years younger than you, and certain disabled or chronically ill individuals. Generally, EDBs are able to take annual required distributions based on their remaining life expectancy. However, once an EDB dies, or once a minor child EDB reaches age 21, any remaining funds must be distributed within 10 years.

Most importantly, though, the SECURE Act requires that if your designated beneficiary is not an EDB, the entire account must be fully distributed within 10 years after your death.

What If Your Designated Beneficiary Is Not an EDB?

If you die before your required beginning date, no distributions are required during the first nine years after your death, but the entire account must be distributed in the tenth year.

If, however, you die on or after your required beginning date, the newly issued regulations clarified that annual distributions based on the designated beneficiary's remaining life expectancy are required in the first nine years after the year of your death, then the remainder of the account must be distributed in the tenth year.

What If Your Beneficiary Is a Nonspouse EDB?

Here’s where it can get more complicated. After your death, annual distributions will be required based on remaining life expectancy. If you die before your required beginning date, required annual distributions will be based on the EDB's remaining life expectancy. If you die on or after your required beginning date, annual distributions after your death will be based on the greater of (a) what would have been your remaining life expectancy or (b) the beneficiary's remaining life expectancy. Also, if distributions are calculated each year based on what would have been your remaining life expectancy, the entire account must be distributed by the end of the calendar year in which the beneficiary's remaining life expectancy would have been reduced to one or less (if the beneficiary's remaining life expectancy had been used).

After your beneficiary dies, or your beneficiary who is your minor child turns age 21, annual distributions based on remaining life expectancy must continue during the first nine years after the year of such an event. The entire account must be fully distributed in the tenth year.

What If Your Designated Beneficiary Is Your Spouse?

There are many special rules if your spouse is your designated beneficiary. The 10-year rule generally has no effect until after the death of your spouse, or possibly until after the death of your spouse's designated beneficiary.

What Life Expectancy Is Used to Determine RMDs After You Die?

Annual required distributions based on life expectancy are generally calculated each year by dividing the account balance as of December 31 of the previous year by the applicable denominator for the current year (but the RMD will never exceed the entire account balance on the date of the distribution).

When your life expectancy is used, the applicable denominator is your life expectancy in the calendar year of your death, reduced by one for each subsequent year.  When the non-spouse beneficiary's life expectancy is used, the applicable denominator is that beneficiary's life expectancy in the year following the calendar year of your death, reduced by one for each subsequent year. (Note that if the applicable denominator is reduced to zero in any year using this "subtract one" method, the entire account would need to be distributed.) And at the end of the appropriate 10-year period, any remaining balance must be distributed.

The rules relating to required minimum distributions are complicated, and the consequences of making a mistake can be severe. Talk to us to understand how the rules, and the new proposed regulations, apply to your individual situation.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss your RMDs, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so is your financial plan and investment objectives.

Common Tax Scams to Beware Of

According to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), tax scams tend to increase during tax season and times of crisis. Now that tax season is in full swing,  the IRS is reminding taxpayers to use caution and avoid becoming the victim of a fraudulent tax scheme.   Here are some of the most common tax scams to watch out for.

Phishing and text message scams

Phishing and text message scams usually involve unsolicited emails or text messages that seem to come from legitimate IRS sites to convince you to provide personal or financial information. Once scam artists obtain this information, they use it to commit identity or financial theft. The IRS does not initiate contact with taxpayers by email, text message, or any social media platform to request personal or financial information. The IRS initiates most contacts through regular mail delivered by the United States Postal Service.

Phone scams

Phone scams typically involve a phone call from someone claiming that you owe money to the IRS or you're entitled to a large refund. The calls may show up as coming from the IRS on your Caller ID, be accompanied by fake emails that appear to be from the IRS, or involve follow-up calls from individuals saying they are from law enforcement. These scams often target more vulnerable populations, such as immigrants and senior citizens, and use scare tactics such as threatening arrest, license revocation, or deportation.

Tax-related identity theft

Tax-related identity theft occurs when someone uses your Social Security number to claim a fraudulent tax refund.  You may not even realize you've been the victim of identity theft until you file your tax return and discover that a return has already been filed using your Social Security number.  Or the IRS may send you a letter indicating it has identified a suspicious return using your Social Security number.  To help prevent tax-related identity theft, the IRS now offers the Identity Protection PIN Opt-In Program.  The Identity Protection PIN is a six-digit code that is known only to you and the IRS, and it helps the IRS verify your identity when you file your tax return.

Tax preparer fraud

Scam artists will sometimes pose as legitimate tax preparers and try to take advantage of unsuspecting taxpayers by committing refund fraud or identity theft. Be wary of any tax preparer who won't sign your tax return (sometimes referred to as a "ghost preparer"), requires a cash-only payment, claims fake deductions/tax credits, directs refunds into his or her own account or promises an unreasonably large or inflated refund. A legitimate tax preparer will generally ask for proof of your income and eligibility for credits and deductions, sign the return as the preparer, enter a valid preparer tax identification number, and provide you with a copy of your return.   It's important to choose a tax preparer carefully because you are legally responsible for what's on your return, even if it's prepared by someone else.

False offer in compromise

An offer in compromise (OIC) is an agreement between a taxpayer and the IRS that can help the taxpayer settle tax debt for less than the full amount that is owed. Unfortunately, some companies charge excessive fees and falsely advertise that they can help taxpayers obtain larger OIC settlements with the IRS.  Taxpayers can contact the IRS directly or use the IRS Offer in Compromise Pre-Qualifier tool to see if they qualify for an OIC.

Unemployment insurance fraud

Typically, this scheme is perpetrated by scam artists who try to use your personal information to claim unemployment benefits. If you receive an unexpected prepaid card for unemployment benefits, see an unexpected deposit from your state in your bank account, or receive IRS Form 1099-G for unemployment compensation that you did not apply for, report it to your state unemployment insurance office as soon as possible.

Fake charities

Charity scammers pose as legitimate charitable organizations in order to solicit donations from unsuspecting donors. These scam artists often take advantage of ongoing tragedies and/or disasters, such as a devastating tornado, war or the COVID-19 pandemic. Be wary of charities with names that are similar to more familiar or nationally known organizations. Before donating to a charity, make sure it is legitimate, and never donate cash, gift cards, or funds by wire transfer.  The IRS website has a tool to assist you in checking out the status of a charitable organization.

Protecting yourself from scams

Fortunately, there are some things you can do to help protect yourself from scams, including those that target taxpayers:

• Don't click on suspicious or unfamiliar links in emails, text messages, or instant messaging services — visit government websites directly for important information
• Don't answer a phone call if you don't recognize the phone number — instead, let it go to voicemail and check later to verify the caller
• Never download or open email attachments unless you can verify that the sender is legitimate
• Keep device and security software up-to-date, maintain strong passwords, and use multi-factor authentication
• Never share personal or financial information via email, text message, or over the phone

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so is your financial plan and investment objectives.